On 25 September 2025, ARECOMS (the Congolese Regulatory Authority for Strategic Mineral Commodities) issued a communiqué announcing two critical decisions: the extension of the suspension of cobalt exports until 15 October 2025, and the adoption of a quota system that will govern exports from 16 October 2025 onward. Together, these measures mark a significant shift in the DRC’s approach to managing its cobalt sector.
From suspension to structural controls
The initial suspension, introduced in February 2025 as a temporary four-month measure, has now stretched to eight months. During this period, cobalt exports from the DRC, which accounts for more than 70% of global supply, have effectively been halted, creating significant disruptions across the supply chain.
The new quota system will take effect immediately after the suspension ends and is expected to remain in force for 2026 and 2027, subject to review. According to ARECOMS, the intent is to stabilise the market, reduce oversupply pressures, and ensure that the DRC exerts greater strategic control over its cobalt resources.
Quota allocations
The communiqué sets out strict export volumes:
Importantly, ARECOMS reserves the right to adjust quotas quarterly if market imbalances occur or if policy objectives require intervention.
Exemptions
The quota system does not apply to certain operators:
- Companies that exported less than 100 tonnes in 2024 (with the exception of EGC)
- Companies that own refineries but have not mined cobalt in the past five years
- Companies whose reserves are already depleted
In addition, Enterprise Générale du Cobalt (EGC), which holds exclusive rights over artisanal and semi-industrial cobalt, remains exempt from both the suspension and the quota system.
Control and Enforcement Measures
To enforce the system, ARECOMS has introduced strict oversight mechanisms:
- Companies may see quotas reduced or withdrawn if they process unauthorised feedstock or fail to comply with reporting requirements.
- Cobalt stocks exceeding the allocated quotas may be purchased directly by ARECOMS, strengthening state control over excess supply.
- The strategic quota of 9,600 tonnes is explicitly discretionary, allowing the regulator to respond flexibly to shifts in market demand or geopolitical priorities.
Implications for the Market
The extension of the suspension and the transition to a quota regime carry significant implications:
- Producers and buyers may face allocation bottlenecks as volumes are capped and closely monitored.
- Price volatility is likely, given the reduced transparency around how the strategic quota will be deployed.
- Downstream industries, particularly in batteries and hard metals, will need to factor in risks of delayed deliveries and constrained supply.
- Meanwhile, Indonesia’s rise as a cobalt producer via nickel-linked projects could accelerate, as buyers seek to diversify their supply chain.
Strategic Outlook
At its core, the policy reflects the DRC government’s intent to:
- Retain stronger sovereign control over cobalt flows
- Encourage domestic refining and processing capacity
- Protect producers from price collapses associated with oversupply
Yet the system also underscores the risk of political discretion shaping global cobalt markets, with ARECOMS empowered to make adjustments at short notice.
Cobalt is back, but in a different state than before
The DRC’s latest measures confirm that its cobalt sector will remain under tight state management well into 2027. While quotas provide some predictability for exporters and buyers, the discretionary nature of the strategic quota means that uncertainty will persist.
Shu Powders will continue to monitor developments closely, providing analysis and insights to help partners navigate this evolving landscape.
