The cobalt market has always been unpredictable, but the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) recent decision to ban exports of crude cobalt hydroxide has introduced a new wave of volatility. Announced at the end of February 2025, this four-month ban sent immediate ripples across the global supply chain shaking confidence and pushing cobalt prices sharply upward.
At Shu Powders, we understand that our customers and partners may be wondering how these developments could affect their supply. We want to offer transparency and assurance: our supply chain has been built to withstand precisely these types of disruptions.
Strategic stability in uncertain times
Shu Powders’ cobalt sourcing strategy has always been forward-thinking—not reactive. We’ve made deliberate choices to create a resilient, diversified supply chain that ensures uninterrupted operations, even in the face of political or market shocks. Our cobalt supply remains stable and secure, and we are fully operational.
Cobalt prices had steadily declined over the past two and a half years, dropping to breakeven levels for many miners. But following the DRC’s announcement, prices surged by more than 50%, as seen in the chart below (Fig. 1). Since then, the market has held steady, awaiting further clarity on whether the ban will be extended, lifted, or replaced by a quota system—an update expected following the Cobalt Congress held in mid-May.
Fastmarkets London Metal Bulletin pricing shows cobalt falling from USD 40/lb in Q2 2022 to USD 10/lb by the end of 2024. In response to the March 2025 DRC export ban, prices surged by over 50%.
Understanding the supply chain fundamentals
Cobalt isn’t typically mined on its own—it’s mostly produced as a byproduct of copper and nickel mining. Around 70% of cobalt comes from copper mines in the DRC, with Glencore’s Mutanda and Katanga operations leading production.
Glencore’s Mutanda Copper Mine in Katanga, DRC—one of the world’s largest cobalt-producing sites.
Indonesia follows the DRC as the second-largest cobalt producer, contributing around 10%, largely as a result of increased nickel mining driven by battery demand. While the EV market is a major factor, demand for copper and nickel is also driven by other high-growth sectors like renewable energy, electronics, and stainless steel.
E-mobility expectations VS. market reality
Although EVs were once expected to drive a cobalt boom, the reality is more complex. Battery technologies are evolving rapidly. Nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries—used in long-range vehicles—are shifting toward high-nickel, low-cobalt formulations. Meanwhile, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which contain no cobalt, are gaining popularity for short-range, city-based EVs.
This tech shift has softened cobalt demand forecasts. Market analysts estimate a global cobalt surplus of 100,000 tons at the start of 2025, with an expected total surplus of 140,000 tons by year-end.
Projected cobalt supply and demand from 2022–2025, showing an accumulated surplus of 140,000 tons by the end of 2025.
New market leader, same oversupply
In 2023, CMOC overtook Glencore as the world’s largest cobalt producer. Their output is forecast to exceed 100,000 tons again this year, despite the export ban. Much of this material is being stockpiled—adding to the looming surplus.
The DRC’s efforts to prop up cobalt prices are understandable, but the fundamentals are stacked against them. Since cobalt is produced as a byproduct of high-demand copper and nickel mining, supply continues to grow regardless of cobalt-specific demand.
Given these dynamics, a return to the sky-high prices of USD 40/lb seen in early 2022 seems unlikely. A price range closer to USD 20/lb is more realistic—and even that may prove difficult to maintain without broad market intervention.
How Shu Powders stays resilient
In the face of all this uncertainty, Shu Powders remains a reliable partner. Our supply strategy is built on:
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Primary sourcing from Glencore’s Mutanda and Katanga mines (DRC) -
Secondary sourcing from Indonesia, the world’s second-largest producer -
Robust recycling streams, ensuring circularity and supply flexibility
This multi-source model keeps our cobalt powder production secure, stable, and future-ready. Our customers can trust that Shu Powders will continue to deliver with consistency—no matter how the global market shifts.
